Alright, so, in many of these cases, you just simply have new all time highs first before something burns down. And so that’s what what I’ve done comes down to this whole runway discussion, you know, given all the factors we mentioned at the outset, you know, if you do have a year, year and a half this, this can, this can drag on and to 25, and then the recession heads. So you may see that big year and run and then some sort of correction again, at the beginning of the year, and then that typically run, you know, unless you are in a recession. So my and by the way, speaking of seasonality chart, again, the first quarter in a presidential election years, typically quite shaky. So they all have an incentive? What? Whether they succeed or not, that’s a completely different question. And guess what everybody was out? During the recession during the election year, you’re out? Goodbye. Ironically, that has happened a couple of times, right. Like whether, you know, doesn’t matter which party you are in favor of any party is in charge does not want to have a recession during an election year. Some people think that this is engineering for stability through the November election of next year. They rally point about human human elements. Level spending when we have a robust economyĪnd typically when you have this type of bending, when you are in a recession, guess what markets do? And I’ve shown a chart recently that shows not only is the percentage, abnormally high, but it’s never been this high with unemployment this low. It was around for four and a half percent deficit spending. There were only a couple of parents were seen anything like one was the global financial crisis, I think was like nine and a half percent not the other one was, of course, COVID when they threw the kitchen sink at things during the recession in 2000 2003. The US government is spending money like we’ve never seen before, during a non recessionary environment,Įight and a half percent of GDP deficits. In fact, the one factor that all of us should be aware of, as well, which makes the tire cycle so unusual. So I suspect that, you know, they they will do the dearest to avoid any major market hiccups. And every single time these were major market pivots. We saw it in March, when she was concerned about the banks. I’m just saying we saw this in in October, when Janet Yellen was concerned with liquidity in the treasury market. You created a soft landing by now back to collecting, speaking engagement fees. I mean, if that’s the business you’ve been in for decades, you know, that’s the legacy you want. And they will do whatever they need to do to avoid that from happening. They don’t they want to avoid it like the plague. And this is completely speculative on my part, but I can just see it, that they don’t want a recession. And the reason I mentioned that is both have a vested interest in going out on top, preserving their legacy, if you will. I don’t think she states I think she’s retired. And I think she’s committed until the election November, if Biden gets reelected. Janet tried to get out a couple of times. I don’t know how much longer he wants to do this. But it’s it’s kind of a signal out there. But he’s been publicly saying he’s not going to re nominate Powell. Trump whether he is going to run again or be nominated again or elect again, I don’t know. Now they’ve both hung their necks out on the soft landing. You know, the names that have been with us for years. Because we do have a presidential election next year. And this has nothing to do with technicals has nothing to do with macro. And then I want to throw in one final point here. And the technical position of this was was very impressive. Yeah, then then things could change very quickly. You know, if the VIX goes above that monthly trend line that I mentioned, stays above it. Purely technically speaking, I have a hard time making a bear case at this particular juncture I can I can make a corrective case that leads for a pullback in September, October, maybe with a volatility spike. Okay, well, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Sven Henrich. And watch it there first, it sets the context for the investment themes we discussed in this video. If you haven’t yet watched part one of this discussion with spin, in which he explains why technical analysis suggests the markets may have a lot further still to run higher this year, head over to our channel at /wealthion. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with macro analysts, Sven Henrich. So show me that something that breaks like chunk, and we can talk bear, but it hasn’t broken And the liquidity keeps flowing in terms of deficits in terms of PTFB. The Windows for bears to act in are very, very short.
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